Why the Rockets Must Trade Shane Battier

Originally published at the Bleacher Report here.

To put it nicely, the Rockets have had a rough January. They blew a crucial opportunity to move up in the standings on their first substantial homestand of the year, losing four of six games and falling back out of the playoff picture for now.

With each day, the Rockets' chances of reaching the playoffs dwindle, as the Western Conference now includes eleven above average teams instead of the usual nine with the success of the Thunder and Grizzlies.

The lion's share of the trade buzz relates to Tracy McGrady and moving his contract players with longer contracts. But the Rockets clearly have not gotten a palatable offer, as they have yet to pull the trigger on a deal for him.

So if the Rockets plan on letting McGrady expire, they will have short of $10 million to work with in the offseason. Certainly a nice amount of money, but if the Rockets want to resign Luis Scola and Kyle Lowry, they will not have enough money to acquire a significant to add to the team.

However, I believe they must go in the opposite direction, and instead of just letting McGrady expire, they must also attempt to move one longer running contract for an expiring deal.

Looking at the Rockets roster, there are really only two such guys that work in a trade like this: Shane Battier and Trevor Ariza. So why trade Battier when he isn't the player who has been jacking up bad shots and traveling every five minutes? For the simple fact that a trade like this would be a move for the future.

As hard as a Battier trade would be, it is clear that he is slowing down. Steven Jackson, Dwayne Wade, Monta Ellis, and others, all dynamite scorers had even more impressive games than usual against the Rockets, despite the fact that Shane used to lock guys like that down.

It is becoming evident that Battier has lost a step or two to age. While Ariza will get better as time goes on, Battier will continue to regress as he goes through the natural aging process. And while Battier is a great leader for the Rockets, it is time that he hand the reins off to players like Aaron Brooks and Carl Landry.

Imagine if the Rockets could rid themselves of the $7+ million owed to Battier. They would instantly become huge contenders in the sweepstakes known as 2010 Free Agency. Instead of looking at guys like Ray Allen, they would be aiming for Joe Johnson or Chris Bosh (no way LeBron comes to Houston).

And while free agency is a crap shoot, they certainly would be better for the 2010-2011 season spending the $7 million extra on a free agent instead of on Battier.

So now I will present a few scenarios that would work for trading Battier. I want to be clear that these trades have neither been offered nor are even being considered by Daryl Morey. I am merely presenting a few trades that would work for both teams regarding Shane Battier.

Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies

Sending Battier back to the Grizzlies would be great for both teams. A trade along the lines of Battier for Hamed Haddadi and Steven Hunter would give the Grizzlies someone who could play defense and not shoot every time he touched the ball. He would be the perfect sage veteran to play along Rudy Gay or OJ Mayo, and the Grizzlies would give up virtually nothing, as Haddadi is stuck as the fourth or fifth big man in a deep front court.

Additionally, the Rockets would get a center capable of growing into a more dependable backup for Yao than David Andersen and save over $5 million next year. The Grizzlies would instantly become scary in the playoffs and the Rockets would gain great flexibility going forward in addition to a serviceable big man.

Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves

This trade is less exciting than the last one, a simple one for one swap of Shane Battier for Brian Cardinal. The reasoning is pretty easy for this one, the Wolves get a solid wing player that they so desperately need, and the Rockets pick up the many times aforementioned cap room next year. Brian Cardinal, however, may be useful as a great cheerleader, challenging Brian Cook for the best on the team.

Houston Rockets and Portland Trailblazers

In a trade that would end uncertainty on the Blazers and give the Rockets a couple of decent wings with expiring contracts, the Rockets would swap Battier and Joey Dorsey for Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw.

Looking at the Blazers, they have a good number of decent candidates for the starting SF position, but no definite candidates. Nicolas Batum is the heir apparent to the position, but putting Battier on that team would give Batum a mentor and improve the Blazers this year and into the future.

Additionally, the Blazers are in quite a logjam at the point. Jerryd Bayless and Andre Miller have been playing better as of late, and moving Blake would maximize those two's minutes, hopefully appeasing the always-fragile Andre Miller.

From the Rockets end it's the same old story, cap room.

As the Rockets transition from the McGrady-Yao era to the Brooks-Landry-etc era, it is important that they do not get stuck in between mediocre period, much like the Suns did last year. Losing Shane Battier would be a tough blow to a city and team that has loved him since he arrived, but his value to the team is dropping as his defense deteriorates.

Houston Rockets and NBA Mailbag: First Edition

Originally published at the Bleacher Report and at NbaSoup here and here.

With the trade deadline closing and teams beginning to separate themselves as the best, the NBA is entering a very exciting time.

To celebrate, I have unveiled my inaugural "Houston Rockets and More"NBA mailbag. I would like to thank all the readers who sent in e-mails, and I am sorry if I was unable to answer your question.

Patrick, with Omri Casspi putting up great numbers and Ron Artest gone, in hindsight would you have undone the Ron Artest for Bobby Jackson and picks (Casspi and Donte Greene) trade if you could?

—Sebastian, Texas

Great question, but I really think that there is no way I would redo that trade for a second.

Omri Casspi certainly has turned into a nice player much faster than scouts and executives thought, but I really doubt he will be a star. He has already come back down to earth after his monstrous production earlier in the year.

Additionally, I worry that he will not be able to reproduce the great three-point percentage he put up earlier in the year because his mechanics are not great and he may have just hit a hot streak. He most likely will turn into a Andres Nocioni or Matt Harpring type of player—someone useful but not likely to be sorely missed by his team.

And while Artest did have his faults, the fact is he got the team further than it had gone since 1997, practically putting it on his shoulders at times (sometimes to a fault), and gave the Rockets that physical defender who could match up with anyone in the league.

While it has hurt them to lose two first-rounders in a row, I do not mind that one bit considering the excitement that they treated us to in the playoffs last year, nearly knocking off the Lakers in seven games.

[What] is Daryl Morey doing? With the team not doing well, why has he not made a move like getting Andre Iguodala or Kevin Martin to help make the offense better?

—Rui, Wuhan, China

Great to see someone from all the way around the world sending in a question. Truly only possible in the 21st century. But on to the question.

First, even though there has been endless speculation about the possible trade partners with the Rockets, it is pretty clear that neither of these players have actually been offered to the Rockets. Additionally, while it is easy as a fan to want a quick fix like those, the actual offers (if they are ever offered) could cause long term problems for the Rockets.

Take Kevin Martin. He is a fantastic scorer and is signed to a reasonable contract. Why not take him? You're basically getting something for nothing, right?

Well, this year add say Martin, Nocioni, and some extra filler, and the Rockets would be much improved. They'd have a borderline star shooting guard and a bruising forward to guard more physical guys like LeBron James.

But come this summer, the Rockets would be in major trouble. Instead of having almost $10 million to spend, the Rockets would be looking at a very high payroll if they wanted to re-sign Luis Scola and/or Kyle Lowry, and would be paying the luxury tax for sure.

So, in the end, the Rockets would have locked themselves into possible financial trouble if they made a trade for Martin or Andre Iguodala, and they still wouldn't be a sure-fire championship contender, but I agree it is frustrating to watch this team struggle.

If Kobe Bryant and LeBron James were playing one-on-one and all the rules were strictly enforced (including traveling), who would win?

—Will, Texas

Sorry, but despite whatever disadvantage LeBron would have with the loss of his patented LeTraveling, he would absolutely destroy Kobe. LeBron could absolutely manhandle Kobe in the post, shoot over the top of him, or just grab his finger and make him cry.

If the playoffs started today, who would you pick to win it all?

—Herman, Netherlands

I may get criticized for this, but I think that Orlando is the most complete team in the league. The Celtics have great talent, the Cavaliers have the best player in the game, and the Lakers are equally good, but I think Orlando is the best team in the league.

They went through a rough stretch, losing to some pretty bad teams, but if you look at their roster they are absolutely loaded.

Dwight Howard is the best center playing right now (unless you are an absolutely die-hard David Lee fan), Vince Carter, despite his faults, is still a top shooting guard in the league, Rashard Lewis is a great player, and they have a terrific supporting cast.

They have Marcin Gortat, Mikael Pietrus, Jason Williams, JJ Redick, and Ryan Anderson coming off the bench. That is a unit that could probably beat the Kings most nights.

And we are talking about the reigning East champions here. They improved their bench with the addition of Brandon Bass and Jason Williams, and despite whatever criticism they get, Carter is a better player than Hedo Turkoglu and improves their team. Carter plays something resembling defense while Turkoglu seems content to only play on the offensive end at times.

Which uniforms would you say are the best in the NBA?

—Casey, New Jersey

No matter how much I love the Rockets' new alternate jerseys, the Mavericks have the best uniforms in the league. Mark Cuban came in and transformed their jerseys from one of the worst to the best. They are sleek, modern, and just generally interesting. I know that it is all a matter of taste but I would say that the Mavs have the edge.

Thank you for reading the inaugural "Houston Rockets and More" NBA mailbag. If you want your question included in a future mailbag, please send me an e-mail at pnharrel@gmail.com with your name and location.

The Case to Start Chase Budinger

Originally published on the Bleacher Report here:

The Rockets are in a rut right now. They have lost seven of their last 11 games, given several unconvincing performances against lottery teams, and have dropped out of the playoff picture for the moment. To quote Daryl Morey, they are "not a playoff team [without] change."

So, what is that change going to be?

Morey has made it clear he was not necessarily speaking specifically about changing the roster. The player's performances must change and perhaps the rotation must as well.

When looking at the ways to improve the Rockets, a couple ideas come to mind.

Trading McGrady for contributing players who would infuse new energy into a team that is clearly stalling. While this move has been written about endlessly, to put it simply, trading McGrady would be helpful to the Rockets, but is also a move that would most likely sacrifice their crucial cap room for the summer of 2010.

Another way to jump start this team is a little less costly. Insert Chase Budinger into the starting lineup in order to instill a more offensive mentality into a unit deprived of offense.

Drafted after 43 players in the 2009, Budinger, has developed into a deadly shooter off the bench, a role that needed to be filled with the loss of fan favorite Von Wafer.

To quote an earlier article I wrote:

"[Budinger] plays well without the ball, can shoot off screens, slashes equally well, and has the strong basketball IQ required for Adelman's offense. All of these qualities sound like qualities found in a lottery pick..."

So why take a player thriving with the second unit, place him against first-team defenses and put the added pressure on him of starting in the NBA? The answer is simple; the starting lineup is not working.

The current starting lineup is consistently putting the Rockets behind early, with an unadjusted +/- of -43 points on the year. Inserting Budinger into the starting lineup would help remedy this deficit, as the current starting lineup has only one player, Aaron Brooks who is truly offensive minded.

While the Rocket's offense has a tendency to stagnate when the first unit's shots are not falling, Budinger's amazing ability to come off of screens and hit jumpshots or slash to the basket makes him a double threat in the offense and creates plays when the team is unable to score.

Additionally, the inclusion of Budinger into the starting lineup would move the struggling Trevor Ariza into the high flying second unit, improving both the second unit's defense and Trevor Ariza's shot selection.

While Ariza is currently the second or third option in the starting lineup on offense, in the second unit he would be surrounded by more offensively minded players. Putting Carl Landry, David Andersen, Aaron Brooks, and Kyle Lowry around Ariza would take pressure off him to create his own shot and allow him to relax and find his shot within the offense.

Furthermore, because most of the aforementioned players are not defensive weapons, Ariza would counteract their faults, much like the second unit would compensate for Ariza's offensive woes.

This new balance created is the key to the Ariza-Budinger lineup swap. Budinger would have freedom on a defensively minded unit to take shots but also have his defensive shortcomings compensated for, while Ariza would help strengthen the second unit's defense and return to the role of the fourth option in the offense, where he was so successful in Los Angeles.

Daryl Morey: A Real Man of Genius

Originally published on the Bleacher Report here.

Imagine this: You get a job as a general manager of an NBA team and you find out that your team has two oft-injured players sucking up more than half of the cap signed to long-term contracts. After a trade, you have only one power forward on your roster, Steve Novak, who is happy to get 10 minutes a game. Great situation, huh?

That's the exact situation Daryl Morey faced when he was hired in May of 2007. A surprising hire after working with the Boston Celtics for three years and then one year with the Houston Rockets, Morey has turned the Rockets into a team consistently surpassing expectation and never giving up.

Morey came in and, without waiting more than a week, started to make significant moves. First, he confidently put his stamp on the team, firing Jeff Van Gundy, a talented head coach who never had really been able to improve the Rockets' offense as much as he did with the defense, and replacing him with battle-tested veteran Rick Adelman.

Then Morey really started to show his brilliance in the 2007 draft, not drafting the prospects based upon the general consensus, but those he considered the best. In doing so, he netted Carl Landry and Aaron Brooks, arguably the Rockets' two best players this year. At the time, though, Morey drew much criticism for the draft, with Chad Ford remarking: "Morey is smart, and he might make me look very stupid in a few years for saying this, but I think the Rockets' draft was one of the worst of the night."

Next, in a steal that might be known as his best move yet just a few months later, Morey acquired Luis Scola for a second round pick and salary cap relief. This trade was crucial to the Rockets success, because he had finally acquired that bona fide starting power forward to play off of Yao and take a little pressure off him, instead of throwing him out there with Novak or Juwan Howard.

If you are taking notes at home, Morey transformed the Rockets' PF position from Steve Novak into two power forwards capable of starting for most teams in the league today. And all he gave up for both these players was a little bit of cap relief to the Spurs, two second round picks, and cash to the Sonics. This value helped the Rockets build a winning team despite the absurd money being paid to two unreliable superstars.

He did make some mistakes, however. Actually, just two that I can count. Signing Brent Barry and Steve Francis are moves I am sure he would love to reverse. Even so, both Barry and Francis only made about $2 million a year each, and were low-risk moves.

You see, Daryl Morey is brilliant because he makes solid, low risk moves instead of swinging for the fences and possibly whiffing. Even his "risky" move of trading for Ron Artest was relatively low-risk. He gave up a reserve guard and two late first round picks to acquire a defensive stopper and a third option in the offense.

While the trade did not transform the Rockets into title contenders as was hoped, it did not hamstring the team and actually got them further in the playoffs than they had been in the Yao Ming-Tracy McGrady era. I think any Rockets fan and Morey would probably say that giving up Donte Greene and Omri Casspi (who looks to be a very nice player) was well worth getting through the first round and having a magical run in the second.

In his next act of brilliance, in the 2009 draft, Morey got a player that was a perfect fit for the Rockets' offense in Chase Budinger, as well as two future contributing guards in Jermaine Taylor and Sergio Llull, all for only cash (a lot of it) and a future second round pick.

When Daryl Morey said Budinger was the real deal, I thought he was just saying the same old GM shtick, but he has been an absolute steal. He plays well without the ball, can shoot off screens, slashes equally well, and has the strong basketball IQ required for Adelman's offense. All of these qualities sound like qualities found in a lottery pick, but this guy was picked in the middle of the second round!

Finally, while met with the possibility of having neither Yao nor a contributing McGrady for the 2009-2010 season, Morey's reluctance to make shortsighted moves to improve the team by maybe a few wins but mortgage the future showed his incredible foresight in constructing the team.

While it could have been tempting to take whatever he could get for McGrady, Morey's prudence in the matter has set the Rockets up to either acquire an All-Star or have significant cap space this winter.

If you are wondering, if you combine his major trades mentioned above during his tenure he gave up around $10 million, two first round picks, two second round picks, Rafer Alston and Bobby Jackson for Luis Scola, Carl Landry, Ron Artest, and Kyle Lowry (one of the underrated true point guards in the game). That is incredible value. If that trade occurred today, Gregg Popovich might have an aneurysm and the Lakers would wonder whether they could get a deal like that.

To wrap things up, its not his Moneyball style that has earned him a reputation as one of the top GMs in the league, but rather his patience and his belief that a lot of low-risk, high-reward moves are more likely to improve a team more than a couple high-risk, higher reward moves. While he came into a team with a murky future, Morey has quickly transformed the Rockets into a franchise that looks to be a solid playoff team for years to come and, maybe with a little more Morey magic, a championship team.